Black Sea Grain Initiative:

a Game-Theoretic Analysis

Abstract

In July 2023, the Black Sea Grain Deal expired just a year after its inception. It has become a very popular topic due to its significant implications for grain and staple food prices. There has been an abundance of empirical analysis to understand the situation, but the recent developments in the Black Sea Grain Deal have not been examined using a game-theoretic approach. This paper provides a game-theoretic viewpoint of the Black Sea Grain Deal with the focus on the breakdown. Using principles of game theory, I develop an infinitely repeated game with a defined set of players, actions, and preferences expressed through payoffs. By analyzing the game for sub-game perfect Nash equilibria, there is a clearer understanding of the breakdown of the Black Sea Grain Deal and its future implications. I finish by discussing possible extensions and variations of the model along with what conditions need to be met for a game-theoretic approach to be viable in general international relations settings.