Assessing the Impact of Atmospheric Human Interventions and Climatic Variability on Extreme Rainfall Events in the UAE:

A Statistical Approach

Abstract

Urban flooding is becoming a major issue for cities worldwide, especially in dry regions like the Arabian Gulf. Common causes of urban floods include inadequate drainage systems, rapid urbanization, and the effects of climate change, which can lead to more intense and frequent rainfall events. This study aims to investigate the causes of extreme rainfall events in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where rapid urban growth, increasing population, and climate change make the risk of flooding due to high precipitation more severe. The main goal is to assess how natural climate variability, human activities, and local interventions like cloud seeding affect the frequency of extreme rainfall events. The study uses Poisson regression models to analyze historical precipitation data from four regions in the UAE–Dubai, Sharjah City, Ras al-Khaimah, and Al Ain–covering both periods before and after cloud seeding operations started. Understanding these connections is crucial for developing effective strategies to reduce flooding and for guiding future urban planning and water resource management efforts in the region.